Press Release

The results showed a significant lead for Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRaqaz with 30% of voters proposing to vote for him if the governorship election were to be conducted today; and 11%  proposing to vote for  Alhaji Shuaibu Yaman Abdullahi (PDP) who fell in second place. Mr. Hakeem Oladimeji Lawal (SDP) was a distant third with only 3% of voters proposing to vote for him.

Governor AbdulRahman’s 19%-point lead at this early stage is very significant and separates him from a leading pack of candidates scoring 30%, 11% and 3%.   

Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 31% and 19% respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 36% of women are undecided versus 26% of male voters.

The percentage of registered voters is as follows in each of the districts - 93% in Kwara North, 95% in Kwara Central, and 94% in Kwara South.

When asked if respondents were aware of the various candidates vying for Governorship, data gathered showed that 89% of the respondents were aware of Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRaqaz of the APC, 73% were aware of Alhaji Shuaibu Yaman Abdullahi of the PDP and 60% were aware of Mr. Hakeem Oladimeji Lawal of SDP.  All other candidates scored below 50% in terms of name recognition.

Furthermore, the data summarizes top three reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq:- A good first tenure (38%), Continuity (27%), Capacity and integrity (15%) and better welfare for civil servants (5%).

33% of the respondents would love to see their preferred governorship candidates participate in a televised interview and/or debate, with the interview/debates spanning across topics like their party manifestos, personality recognition and competence check amongst others.

It is worthy of note that 81% of those aged 18-25, 75% of those aged 26-35, 87% of those aged 36-45, 93% of those aged 46-60 and 77% of those aged 61+ responded they would definitely vote in the coming elections. The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 36-45 and 46-60 years.

The Poll shows that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next governorship election. If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the March 2023 Governorship elections.   

While this Governorship Poll result is very significant, it is important to remember that undecided/swing voters can still influence the outcome as they will help decide which candidate emerges as Governor of Kwara State in the 2023 governorship elections.

In summary, our October 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner as the undecided voters are enough to turn the tables. However, Anap Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front runners and so our subsequent polls will concentrate on the leading candidates only.

Signed:

Atedo N A Peterside _CON,

President & Founder, Anap Foundation

NOIPolls Limited is No.1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa. It conducts periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com.

Anap Foundation is a Non-Profit Organization committed to promoting good governance. Anap Foundation has been carrying out a series of Election polls since 2011 with the main objective of providing information on opinion research during election periods. Anap Foundation conducted similar polls for the Presidential elections in 2011, 2015, 2019 & 2022 and for the Ekiti State Governorship elections in 2014 & 2022 and also for the Lagos, Kaduna and Rivers State Governorship elections in 2015, as well as Sokoto, Kano, Rivers & Lagos in 2019. Our Governorship Polls have a sample size of 500. Sampling was done via stratified random sampling and interviews were conducted via mobile telephone calls in the preferred language of the respondent. The Margin of Error for the 2022 Governorship Polls is 6.57%. More information on Anap Foundation and our approved Polling Methodology is available at www.anapfoundation.com