Press Release

A 3-horse Presidential Race and a lone outsider

15 September, 2022

Ahead of the forthcoming 2023 Presidential elections, a recent nationwide opinion poll commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited was concluded in early September 2022. The Poll revealed a substantially close race between Mr. Peter Obi of Labour Party (LP), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Running significantly behind the leading pack is Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) who is the lone outsider i.e. a “dark horse” in the race. All other contestants polled results that are statistically insignificant.

The results showed a significant lead for Mr. Peter Obi with 21% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13% each proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who are both tied in second place. Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 3% of voters proposing to vote for him.

Mr. Peter Obi’s 8 percentage point lead at this early stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him   completely from a leading pack of candidates scoring 21%, 13% and 13%  respectively.  

Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 32% and 15% respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 39% of women are undecided versus 27% of male voters.

Poll Question: Suppose the presidential election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for?

 

Total (%)

                Voter responses across Geo - Political Zones

North    East

North Central

North West

South East

South South

South West

 

Poll Ranking

Peter Obi (LP)

21%

4%

16%

8%

68%

46%

12%

 

1st

Bola Tinubu (APC)

13%

18%

16%

15%

0%

2%

18%

 

Joint 2nd

Atiku Abubakar (PDP)

13%

28%

9%

20%

1%

6%

4%

 

Joint 2nd

Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP)

3%

3%

2%

9%

0%

1%

1%

 

4th

Other Candidates

1%

3%

1%

1%

0%

0%

0%

 

 

None

2%

0%

1%

2%

1%

1%

5%

 

  

Undecided

32%

34%

38%

35%

19%

29%

35%

 

 

Refused

15%

10%

17%

10%

11%

15%

25%

 

  

Total

100%

 

 

                                                                               Source: NOIPolls  –  September 2022

The percentage of registered voters is as follows in each of the zones - 99% in the North East, 90% in the South South, the North Central and the North West respectively. The lowest registered voter percentages were in the South East with 88% and the South West with 85%.

When asked if respondents were aware of the various candidates vying for the Presidency, data gathered showed that 99% of the respondents were aware of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC. 98% were aware of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. 95% were aware of  Mr. Peter Obi of LP  and 74% were aware of Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP. All other candidates scored below 55% in terms of name recognition.

Furthermore, the data summarizes top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections, these include: - The need to tackle insecurity (45%), the Economy (20%), Education (9%), Unemployment (7%) and Poverty alleviation (4%).

46% of the respondents would love to see their preferred Presidential candidates participate in a televised interview and/or debate, with the interview/debates spanning across topics like their party manifestos, issues of Security, Economy, Education, Job Creation, Healthcare and Agriculture amongst others.

It is worthy of note that 69% of those aged 18-25, 76% of those aged 26-35, 77% of those aged 36-45, 87% of those aged 46-60 and 89% of those aged 61+ responded saying that they would definitely vote in the coming elections. The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 46-60 and 61+ years. On average, the Poll shows that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next presidential election. If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the February 2023 elections. Furthermore, Mr. Peter Obi led the pack in virtually all the age categories i.e. his leadership was not confined to the youths only.   

While these Poll results show some significant trends, it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the undecided/swing voters, as it appears they would ultimately decide which candidate takes the lead to emerge as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential elections.

In summary, our September 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner, as the undecided voters are large enough to turn the tables. However, Anap Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front runners and so our subsequent polls will concentrate on the 4 leading candidates only.

Signed:

Atedo N A Peterside CON,

President & Founder, Anap Foundation

NOIPolls Limited is No.1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa. It conducts periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com.

Anap Foundation is a Non-Profit Organization committed to promoting good governance. Anap Foundation has been carrying out a series of Elections polls since 2011 with the main objective of providing information on opinion research during election periods. Anap Foundation conducted similar polls for the Presidential and Lagos State Governorship elections in 2011, 2015 & 2019 and for the Ekiti State Governorship elections in 2014 & 2022 and also for the Kaduna and Rivers State Governorship elections in 2015 & 2019 etc. More information on Anap Foundation is available at www.anapfoundation.com