Press Release

The Polls confirm a two-horse Governorship race between Governor Abdullahi Ganduje (Governor Ganduje) of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alh. Kabir Abba Yusuf of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) as all other contestants are a long way behind the front pairing.

The gender split of the Undecided between women and men is 38:22. The geographical split of the Undecided is a little uneven with Kano South (28%) and the Kano North (24%) Zones at similar levels. Conversely, Kano Central Zone has 34% Undecided.

The respondents to our 2019 detailed Kano State Governorship poll tell us that top six (6) reasons for backing Governor Ganduje are:- Women Empowerment (21%), Trustworthiness (17%), Continuity (17%) Youth Empowerment (11%) and His performance so far (9%). Only 5% of Ganduje’s backers are doing so because they believe he has kept to his promises.

Meanwhile, top 5 reasons for backing Alhaji Yusuf are: - His personality (25%), Change of Government (20%), Preferred choice (19%), Unbiasedness (9%) and Intelligience (5%) 

Voter apathy is low all round as those who have given consideration to the forthcoming elections range from 85% in the Kano Central zone to 87% and 89% respectively in Kano North and Kano South.

It is worth noting that all respondents interviewed in this poll are registered voters who had obtained their PVCs and that the voters’ sample mimicked the INEC register in terms of both zonal distribution and demography. The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote are those between 18-25 and 60+ years.

Governor Ganduje has the best name recognition (99%) followed closely by Alh. Yusuf (93%) and Mohammed Abacha (89%). Other candidates who scored above the 50% awareness threshold are Salihu Sagir Takai (83%), A. A. Zaura (59%) and Safiya Salisu Abdul (50%). It is worthy to note that three female Governorship candidates (Fatima Isa, Amina Garba & Halima Ahmed) were also fairly well recognised, although they all scored below the 50% awareness threshold by falling between 39% and 42%.

From the results, when asked who respondents will be voting for in the coming 2019 Governorship elections, the figures put Governor Ganduje in the lead (with 39% of the votes) over Alh. Yusuf (with 19%). Salihu Sagir Takai scored 8%, whilst Mohammed Abacha scored 3%. All other candidates scored insignificant numbers. Only Governor Ganduje and Alhaji Yusuf enjoy decent support across gender and age groups. Alhaji Yusuf however has more support within the 18-25 youthful age group when compared to other age-groups while Ganduje has the most support from the 46 - 60 years and 60 years+ age groups 

Governor Ganduje’s lead is sizeable but not totally unassailable because the largest concentration of Undecided voters reside in the Kano Central zone, where he is weakest. Voter turnout can also make a big difference on the day, especially if there is a huge turnout. A poor turnout should favour Governor Ganduje. He only becomes vulnerable if there is a huge turnout.

Anap Foundation has concluded that Governor Ganduje’s lead is significant and almost unassailable. The final outcome is only likely to be uncertain if there is a huge turnout by Undecided Voters and many of them plonk in favour of  Change (Yusuf) over (Continuity (Ganduje) or if the third most popular candidate (Salihu Sagir Takai) withdraws from the race.

The margin of error is within the plus or minus 2.20% error margin at a 95% confidence margin. This means that if the survey was conducted 100 times using the exact same procedures, the margin of error would include the true value on 95 out of 100 surveys.

NOI Polls Limited is No.1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa. It conducts periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com 

Anap Foundation is a Non-Profit Organisation committed to promoting good governance. Anap Foundation has been carrying out a series of Elections polls since 2011 with the main objective of providing information on opinion research during election periods. ANAP Foundation conducted similar polls for the 2011, 2015 and 2019 Presidential and Lagos State Governorship elections and for the 2014 State Governorship elections in Ekiti State and also for the Kaduna, Lagos and Rivers State Governorship elections in 2015. More information on ANAP Foundation is available at www.anapfoundation.com along with all past Press Releases announcing the results of all these opinion polls. 2019 Governorship Polls for Lagos, Sokoto and Rivers States have already been released.