Press Release

Governor Sanwo-Olu’s 23%-point lead at this stage is significant, as the opposition voters are fragmented and shared between 2 main challengers in the ratio 31:8:7. Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 19% and 30% respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 24% of women are undecided versus 14% of male voters.

Chart below also shows the momentum gained by the 3 leading candidates between our first poll in October 2022 and the second poll in February 2023. 

Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour is clearly the candidate with the greatest momentum.

The percentage of registered voters is as follows in each of the districts - 95% in Lagos West and 93% each in Lagos East and Lagos Central. The Poll shows that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next governorship election. If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the 11 March, 2023 Governorship elections.   

Whilst this Governorship Poll result shows some significant trends, it is key to note that it was concluded before the Presidential elections and that the race is still impossible to call, as undecided/swing voters would ultimately have their say on which candidate emerges as Governor of Lagos State.

In summary, our February 2023 Polls indicate that the race is not completely over, as the undecided voters (19%) and those who refused to reveal their preferred candidate (30%) are large enough to turn the tables. Anap Foundation notes that the trends in momentum may be further influenced by the recently concluded Presidential elections where LP made a strong showing in Lagos.  A lot will depend on if there has since been a further surge in Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour’s momentum.

Signed:

Atedo N A Peterside _CON,

President & Founder, Anap Foundation

NOIPolls Limited is No.1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa. It conducts periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com.

Anap Foundation is a Non-Profit Organization committed to promoting good governance. Anap Foundation has commissioned a series of Election polls since 2011 with the main objective of providing information on opinion research during election periods. Anap Foundation contracted NOIPolls to conduct similar polls for the Presidential elections in 2011, 2015, 2019, September 2022, December 2022 & February 2023 and for the Ekiti State Governorship elections in 2014 & 2022 and also for the Lagos, Kaduna and Rivers State Governorship elections in 2015, as well as Sokoto, Kano, Rivers & Lagos in 2019 and for Lagos, Kwara, Kano, Rivers & Abia State Governorship elections in 2022. Our Governorship Polls now have a sample size of approx. 1,000. Sampling was done via stratified random sampling and interviews were conducted via mobile telephone calls in the preferred language of the respondent. The Margin of Error for the 2023 Lagos Governorship Poll is 6.57%. More information on Anap Foundation and our approved Polling Methodology is available at www.anapfoundation.com