Press Release

The results showed a small lead for Mr. Siminalayi Fubara  with 14% of voters proposing to vote for him if the governorship election were to be conducted today; and 11% proposing to vote for Tonye Patrick Cole (APC) who fell in second place. Magnus Ngei Abe (SDP) was third with 6% and Dumo Owukori Lulu-Briggs (A) was fourth, with 4% of voters proposing to vote for him.

Mr. Siminalayi Fubara’s 3%-point lead at this stage is not sufficient to separate him from a pack of candidates scoring 14%, 11%, 6% and 4% etc. This is a severely fragmented race.    

Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 37% and 18% respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 43% of women are undecided versus 34% of male voters.

The percentage of registered voters is as follows in each of the districts -  88% in Rivers East, 93% in Rivers South and 94% in Rivers West.

When asked if respondents were aware of the various candidates vying for Governorship, data gathered showed that 76% of the respondents were aware of Tonye Patrick Cole of the APC, 74% were aware of Siminalayi Fubara of the PDP, 61% were aware of Dumo Owukori Lulu-Briggs of Accord Party and  60% were aware of Magnus Ngei Abe of  SDP.  All other candidates scored below 50% in terms of name recognition.

Furthermore, the data summarizes top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections, these include: - Job Creation (40%), Provision of Basic Infrastructure (21%), Security (13%), Education (7%) and Food Security (6%).

41% of the respondents would love to see their preferred governorship candidates participate in a televised interview and/or debate, with the interview/debates spanning across topics like their party manifestos, capacity/competence check  and accountability purposes amongst others.

It is worthy of note that 44% of those aged 18-25, 73% of those aged 26-35, 79% of those aged 36-45, 84% of those aged 46-60 and 61% of those aged 61+ responded they would definitely vote in the coming elections. The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 36-45 and 46-60 years.

The Poll shows that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next governorship election. If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the March 2023 Governorship elections.   

While this Governorship Poll result shows some early trends, it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the undecided/swing voters who would ultimately have their say on which candidate emerges as Governor of Rivers State in the 2023 governorship elections.

In summary, our October 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner in this heavily fragmented race in which undecided voters are enough to turn the tables. However, Anap Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front runners and so our subsequent polls will concentrate on the leading candidates only.

Signed:

Atedo N A Peterside _CON,

President & Founder, Anap Foundation

NOIPolls Limited is No.1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa. It conducts periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com.

Anap Foundation is a Non-Profit Organization committed to promoting good governance. Anap Foundation has been carrying out a series of Election polls since 2011 with the main objective of providing information on opinion research during election periods. Anap Foundation conducted similar polls for the Presidential elections in 2011, 2015, 2019 & 2022 and for the Ekiti State Governorship elections in 2014 & 2022 and also for the Lagos, Kaduna and Rivers State Governorship elections in 2015, as well as Sokoto, Kano, Rivers & Lagos in 2019. Our Governorship Polls have a sample size of 500. Sampling was done via stratified random sampling and interviews were conducted via mobile telephone calls in the preferred language of the respondent. The Margin of Error for the 2022 Governorship Polls is 6.57%. More information on Anap Foundation and our approved Polling Methodology is available at www.anapfoundation.com